Brent crude prices recovered Friday, surging close to 3% after lingering around $71 a barrel since Russia hinted OPEC+ might rethink its output plans. Before the market’s rapid bullish response had been weeks of falling prices since mid-January, when concerns about oversupply and economic growth prospects first weighed on traders’ minds.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak set off the rally after he said that while the oil cartel would proceed with scheduled production increases in April, OPEC+ could just as easily “play in the other direction” if market conditions justified it. This flexibility seems to have eased concerns among investors who worry about a potential oversupply.

The market is reading between the lines of these statements. It’s a balancing act between trying to retain market share, while at the same time providing support to prices.

In addition to the complexities of the oil market, Saudi Arabia said it would cut prices for its Asian customers next month. Saudi Aramco, the kingdom’s state oil giant, lowered the official selling price for its benchmark Arab Light crude by 40 cents to $3.50 above the Oman and Dubai average price references. It is the first price drop for Asian buyers in three months.

The price increase comes just as OPEC+, which oversees about half of global oil production, renewed its commitment to an output increase of 138,000 barrels a day starting in April. This marks the group’s first production increase in more than two years.

Industry analysts are split over the direction of the market, looking at the apparent contradiction between Saudi price cuts and a recovering market price. But most agree that OPEC+ seems keen to step in if oil prices slide further.

No doubt, this is welcome news for businesses and consumers who are keeping an eye on the costs of fuels, and it indicates continued volatility in store as producers adjust their desires for some stability in the market with changing demand trends and economic uncertainties during the early part of 2025.

Looking ahead, as we near spring, focus will be dialed in on upcoming OPEC+ meetings and economic data that may offer a clearer picture for the energy markets into the ensuing months.