Discussion of possible $5 per gallon gasoline prices for the busy summer driving season is on the rise as oil prices continue to move upward.

One barrel of light sweet crude oil futures is down $.09 to $104.93 in early Wednesday (March 9) morning trade on the New York NYMEX.

Reports on crude inventory levels in the United States have been mixed of late, leaving speculators uncertain as that aspect of the oil price equation.

Political unrest in the Libya has severely impacted production capacity of one of the top oil exporters in the world.

The biggest concern for many analysts at the moment is whether political tension will move into Saudi Arabia, which has tried to pick up some of the slack for the declines in production from Libya.

Top analysts have noted that global inventory levels appear to remain high. The current upward trend in oil prices is more due to speculation that the tension that has impacted much of the Middle East is not going to end soon.

If other major oil producers are impacted, Saudi Arabia’s ramped up production will not likely be enough to keep up with demand.

In lieu of expectations for ongoing tension, Merrill Lynch has raised its forecast for 2011 oil prices from $87 per barrel to $101.

The American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday that US crude inventory levels were up by 3.8 million barrels last week, according to the McGraw-Hill Cos. Platts survey of analysts. This was a significantly larger increase than expected.

The Energy Information Administration is set to report later in the day on Wednesday. A confirmation of increased US supplies could help keep rising oil prices in check for the short term.