Sterling has continued to outperform most of its rivals in trading today, the notable exception is the USD, which now appears to be gaining some form of momentum for a reversal on cable and the EUR/USD pair. This can be attributed to today’s durable goods orders in the world’s largest economy jumping 3.3% in September amidst expectations of just a 0.5% increase.

Risk aversion has regained its footing in the markets with global stock markets falling today. Traders are tentatively calling a reversal on EUR/USD with support at 1.36, representing the key level to signal a fundamental shift in the markets and a subsequent reversal in this pair. The Standard and Poor’s 500 index has fallen 0.85% today on news that the durable goods report has indicated that the steps to be taken by the Fed to shore up the US economic recovery will be gradual.

US home sales have risen, yet still show US demand for housing is hovering at record low levels. Demand for property in both the US and the UK has been affected to a great extent by the global recession and will continue to be influenced until the labour markets improve and their respective economic recoveries get underway. At the moment it looks like it will be some time before we see any substantial movement in property prices.

The Euros position has benefited significantly from its absenteeism in the global currency war. Analysts signal that it could continue to strengthen in the short term if QE is announced from the US and the UK in the next month. Stock markets will undoubtedly gain if this is the case. Any hint that additional asset purchasing won’t happen from the FED or the BoE’s MPC and we could see the Euro come off from its highs.

Best Regards
Luke Zorab

Torfx Currency Dealer (01736) 335285