Gold had a decent week and I think people are starting to forget how ugly things looked not that long ago. We were sat below $4,700 at one point after the Warsh selloff and now here we are back above $5,080 like nothing happened.. futures even poked above $5,126 on Wednesday morning which is the first time weve been north of $5,100 since January 30th. Still a fair way off the $5,608 high but the recovery has been quick and honestly it feels like every dip just gets bought now. The PBoC doing their 15th straight month of gold buying probably helps with that.

The macro stuff is doing the heavy lifting though. December retail sales came in flat which was rubbish compared to what people expected and then ADP jobs were absolutely dire.. 22,000 in January when they were looking for way more than that. Job openings at the lowest since 2020 as well. So naturally the market has gone from pricing two Fed cuts this year to three and gold just laps that up doesnt it. Lower rates means less reason to hold cash and more reason to hold the shiny stuff. Dollar still looking weak too with the DXY hanging around the mid 96s so thats another tailwind.

Silver is the one thats still got me scratching my head a bit. Ended the week around $85 after a mad bounce on Wednesday where it ripped nearly 5% in a single session to about $84.70. But then you zoom out and remember this thing was above $100 two weeks ago before it got absolutely hammered.. still down roughly a third from the high. Scott Bessent reckons it was all Chinese speculators driving the blowoff which is convenient but probably not wrong. The volatility is mental though. London vault silver stocks dropped 0.3% in January according to the LBMA which doesnt sound like much but when youve got a structural supply deficit its another bit of tightness that adds up. Gold silver ratio sitting around 60 which suggests silver is playing catch up relative to gold but its hard to have much conviction when the thing moves 5% on a random Tuesday.

Both metals look supported for now. Gold above $5,000 feels solid and silver above $80 is where bulls want to hold the line. CPI data still to come this week so that could change everything.