Sterling suffered yesterday as investors reacted to some bad news for the UK government. The big news of the day was a public sector borrowing report, which showed that £12.1 billion was needed to balance the books in August – up from £0.7 billion in July and much higher than analysts’ forecasts of £9.2 billion.

It was the worst August result in three years and suggests that Chancellor George Osborne could struggle to reach a revised goal of achieving a budget surplus in five years time. Volatility in financial markets has clouded British economic sentiment in uncertainty over the past month and some analysts are concerned that weak exports could impact the government’s plans to eliminate the deficit.

Euro

The Pound to Euro exchange rate struck a fresh monthly high yesterday but demand for Sterling shrunk following the soft government borrowing figures.

In Europe the headlines were dominated by a scandal involving German car giant Volkswagen employing a computer chip to help cheat its US-bound cars through emissions tests. The defeat device (chip) is thought to have been fitted in 11 million vehicles and uses a set of criteria to work out when an emissions test is taking place; if the device thinks the car is in test mode it brings the emission levels down to legal levels but when the chip deems the car to be in normal operation emissions control relaxes and nitrogen oxide levels rise to 10-40 times higher than the legal limit.

The swindle smashed Volkswagen shares, sending them down by -23% during the morning as fears of repercussions – product recalls, fines, destroyed brand image etc. – rocked the German brand. The Euro has thus far remained unmoved by the scandal but if the situation deteriorates then over 250,000 German jobs could be on the line and German GDP could contract by around -0.2%. Markets are hopeful that no other German brands have used the emissions cheating devices but if it emerges more companies are liable then the single currency could weaken as sentiment in its largest economy worsens.

US Dollar

Sterling declined by around -150 pips against the US Dollar yesterday as technical support caved in as a number of key mathematical handles came into play all at once. The US Dollar was also helped by a speech from Federal Reserve policymaker Dennis Lockhart suggesting that interest rates should rise before the end of the year.

The Pound was hurt by the government borrowing figures yesterday but it is the ‘Greenback’ that could suffer this afternoon if the US manufacturing PMI slows as expected. Forecasts expect output to cool from 53.0 to 52.8 but a steeper slowdown could give the Pound the impetus to rally back against the US Dollar.

Canadian Dollar

Sterling depreciated by around -150 pips against the Canadian Dollar yesterday as dud government borrowing figures negatively impacted demand for the Pound.

Crude oil prices plunged but on this occasion the downtick in value of Canada’s most lucrative export did not have a serious impact on the commodity-sensitive ‘Loonie’. The key event for GBP/CAD on the calendar today is the Canadian retail sales report, which could bolster demand for the ‘Loonie’ if it rises from 0.6% to 0.8% as expected.

Australian Dollar

GBP/AUD was subject to enhanced volatility during the London session yesterday and ultimately succumbed to a half cent decline, but soft global growth prospects ensured that Sterling did not suffer as much against the ‘Aussie’ as it did against some of the other major currencies.

A huge 9.8% year-on-year increase in Australian house prices supported the Australian Dollar because it was seen to make it slightly less likely that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates over the next few months. Markets currently predict a 38% chance of the RBA slashing rates again before the end of the year.

New Zealand Dollar

The ‘Kiwi’ Dollar rallied by over half a cent against the Pound yesterday on the back of the disappointing UK public sector borrowing figures, which cooled talk somewhat of an early rate hike from the Bank of England.

Data Released

09:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) Medium 52.0
13:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) Medium 0.8%
14:45 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (SEP P) Medium 52.8