Commodities Firm on Oil Data
The commodity complex was firm again today after the latest U.S. oil inventories were released. While this data is more important for the price of West Texas Intermediate it still has an effect on marginal demand. Brent Crude refused to back down below $111 after challenging the recent channel highs above $112 yesterday. If this continues through the week it sets up a very nice platform for next week to break through the $113 level. Copper is setting up similarly at $3.67 per pound and needs a good weekly close above $3.72 to confirm the inflation expectations that are undergirding the equity markets. It will be difficult to hold Copper and Silver back if equities continue to climb near the all-time high on the S&P 500 this spring.
Speaking of Silver it tested yesterday’s breakout level on the daily chart. If you take out the two-day violent spike, from New Year’s Day when the U.S. markets were not open (and JPMorgan wasn’t able to bully the markets as strongly) then yesterday’s close at $30.368 was the highest daily close since December 19th. A close this week above $30.51 would be a bullish weekly reversal signal on Silver.
Gold has been constructively building another base for a shot to assault $1700 again. After last week’s craziness the weekly chart has a big ugly spike that needs to be overcome. At this point closing this week above $1668 would be a major accomplishment and anything higher than that a signal that some of that bond money is leaking into gold. And if it doesn’t here than it’ll just wind up in Hong Kong on its way to the Chinese mainland — 91.8 tons did jsut that in November.