Gold Firms After Weak Asian Open
Friday’s waterfall European close in gold was nothing more than options expiration take-painting. And, while gold had a perfect setup this month to assault $1800 and push through to $1850, that setup looks to have failed spectacularly. After a weak open in Sydney last night Gold strengthened coming into the COMEX session and dollar by dollar re-took most of the ground lost in Friday’s take down. Buying was uncovered at around $1714 per ounce and the market rose all daylong to close the afternoon Globex session at $1729.15 on the December contract.
Strength in the Euro, weakness in both bonds and equities had capital looking for gold as an inflation hedge. I would expect for gold to de-couple from equities as the 4th quarter continues because this earnings season is so weak it will require more easing by the Fed, at least that will be the logic, and that should bid up gold and oil in the face of a global slowdown that is now almost certain for 2013.
The rapid rise of the Yen back towards the 80 level screams Bank of Japan intervention as well as some carry trade unwinding as their trade balance numbers were awful but should improve once things settle down in China. Japan has to intervene and support their US/EU exports in the short term until this row over the Senkaku islands is resolved. If it does not then we could be looking at a number of trade wars turning hot soon. This would, of course, be insanely bullish for gold.