Gold Bounces Off of $1769 as Election Looms in the Background

By Tom Luongo in Gold and Oil News | October 9, 2012 0:22 | Tags: , , , , , ,

I’m not sure what significance $1769 has but the bulls drew their own line in the sand around $1770 all day today, never once allowing the yellow metal to close on an hourly basis below $1771.15 on the December contract.  It was a risk-off kinda day as equities drifted lower and Silver was whacked below $34 for much of the day.  Brent Crude inched higher back above $112 and Copper pushed back over $3.70 per lb.

The situation in Gold neutral with a bullish bias.  With action like we saw today with 6 different attempts to break the price below $1769 per ounce may signify the last bit of selling pressure that exists for the moment in this price range.  The longer this goes on with the price refusing to stay below the $1775 level for very long the greater the probability that Gold breaks through $1800 with a vengeance.

At this point I would not discount election-related selling pressure being put on the commodity markets in order to help the president’s re-election chances.  For while Bernanke has announced QEternity and the Fed has jawboned to that effect, I have not seen anything in the monetary statistics to suggest that anything has actually begun, Fed verbiage to the contrary.

Wouldn’t that just be the thing?  Announce QE and get everyone jazzed for the future money orgy but delay it’s beginning just long enough to hold commodity prices in check until early voting begins.  Tactically, that is a very sound plan.  Watch for signs of the monetary base pushing higher in the coming weeks.


About Tom Luongo
Tom is a professional chemist and self-taught economist who has been following and trading stocks for nearly 12 years. He has no formal ties to the financial industry and considers that an asset in his analysis of the interplay between monetary policy and capital markets.

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