Oil prices had one of those weeks where they looked like they wanted to go somewhere then just.. didnt. Brent crude price finished around $68 a barrel down from nearly $70 the week before, the whole Iran situation has markets uncertain.

Trump said the talks were going well Tehran called it a step forward, but then Washington had American ships on stand by through the Strait of Hormuz which is not exactly what you do when things are going swimmingly. The geopolitical premium came off a couple dollars then went straight back on again like some kind of revolving door. WTI settled mid $64s which tells you the same story from a different angle.

The IEA dropped their February report and basically said supply is going to outpace demand all year.. global inventories built by nearly 480 million barrels in 2025 which is absolutely mental and the surplus isnt going anywhere soon. OPEC keeping quotas through March didn’t help the bulls either and theres this weird situation with India supposedly agreeing to stop buying Russian crude oil as part of a trade deal with the US, except nobody in Delhi seems keen to actually confirm that. Meanwhile US stockpiles jumped by 13 million barrels last week which is the biggest build in over a year.

Natural gas. Henry Hub averaged nearly 8 dollars in Jan thanks to that polar vortex and storm Fern. Fast forward a couple weeks and its back around 3.15 which shows you how quickly sentiment flips when the weather warms up. The EIA reckon storage is going to end March about 8 percent lower than they thought which bumped their annual forecast to about 4.30 but right now spot is nowhere near that.

UK gas slipped below 75 pence a therm at one point.. lowest since early January. Milder forecasts and decent wind generation took the heat off but storage is only about 36 percent full which is thin going into the tail end of winter. Not exactly comfortable.