Long maturity bonds from a number of important governments have been rising for the past few weeks, most notably U.S. Treasuries after hitting an interim low yield of 2.812% have risen steadily since then, closing at 3.125% today and threatening April’s high yield of 3.14%.  It is looking more and more probable that we will see a push through 3.15% on the 30 year Treasury bond this month which would be a bearish signal for them.  Now the question to ask is are yields rising because the Fed has begun slowing its purchases or is the selling of U.S. Treasuries outpacing even the Fed’s furious buying.  We’ll know later in the week when the latest weekly changes to total Fed credit are published.

Also, because U.S. yields are rising, yields of foreign bonds that set their interest rates relative to that of the U.S are also rising.  15 year Singaporean and Hong Kong debt is rising as well and this latest move by the Japanese Yen above ¥101 has many of the stronger Southeast Asian currencies seeing selling pressure this week.  S$1.25 on the Singapore Dollar is an important near-term high as is Rm3.035 for the Malaysian Ringgit, which appreciated sharply after the re-election of the Barisan Nationale coalition last week.

All of this dollar bullishness will translate into lower gold and commodity prices in the near term, while equities continue to be bid up in bubble-like fashion.  I’m watching for a close this week over 3.15% on the 30 year U.S. Bond.