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FX Morning update - US dollar stays firm as debt concerns remain
08-02-2010 06:31

As a new week dawns the Euro continues to remain under pressure after the weekend's G7 meeting failed to deliver little more than rhetoric with respect to measures to deal with the on going problems of how to tackle European sovereign debt issues.

The European finance ministers merely confirmed the substance and significance of Greece's attempts to deal with its deficit on its own without outside interference, amid market fears that politicians are sleep walking into a full blown debt crisis.

The G7 communiqué issued by the finance ministers pledged to continue with economic stimulus measures, even as investors continued to steer clear of riskier assets, while government balance sheets come under even greater scrutiny as the phrase "too big to fail" starts to apply to governments in general, and the fear that the contagion that has loomed over the market over the last week or so, will actually claim a victim in the absence of a political will to grasp the nettle.

The communiqué did acknowledge sovereign debt concerns and went on to state that the G-7 members should set "clear, credible and consistent" plans to strengthen their budgets.

There is also the fear that this contagion could invite scrutiny of the US and the UK's increasingly perilous fiscal positions. As it is Moody's this month warned the US that it needed to takes steps to address its fiscal position or its AAA rating could also come under scrutiny.

EURUSD - the Euro continues to be weighed down by sovereign debt concerns and in the absence of any measures to reassure the market looks set to test towards 1.3485, while below the 1.3800 resistance area.

GBPUSD - the pound continues to look weak against the dollar and has broken below the 1.5705/10 October lows, a close below this level now opens up the possibility of a test towards 1.5450, and trend line support at 1.5110, from the January 2009 lows of 1.3500.

EURGBP - the range remains at 0.8710 support, and 0.8800 resistance and the market needs to see a break one way or the other to determine future direction. There is also significant resistance at the 200 day moving average at 0.8830.

USDJPY - while below 90.30 the market will be looking to test the 9th December lows at 87.35.
There should also be some support around 88.25 which is 61.8% retracement of the up move from the lows at 84.80 to the highs at 93.75.

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