Chancellor Alistair Darling will be forced to lower his predictions for the UK economy for 2009 in his Pre-Budget speech after output fell faster than expected in the early part of the year.

The chancellor will estimate the UK economy fell by 4.75% in 2009, compared to his previous estimate of 3.5%, reports today indicated.

Opponents are likely to seize on the revision as Darling has been consistently criticised for over-optimism in his assessment of the depth of the UK recession.

Reports today quoting Treasury sources suggested that it believed output had fallen faster than expected at the start of the year, but that the economy is now growing again.

The chancellor is expected to labour that point in his speech, but may still have to increase his borrowings forecast again because of the earlier weakness.

The reports said the Treasury was likely to forecast growth of between 1% and 1.5% next year, based on assumed growth of 0.2% and 0.4% in the last quarter of 2009.

The Pre-Budget speech will be on 9 December.

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