Hopes that the recession will finally come to an end in the fourth quarter were raised today by news that retail sales grew at their fastest pace in two years this month.

Sales had risen at 40% of retailers in November and fallen at just 27%, according to the CBI's monthly Distributive Trades Survey.

The balance of +13% was the second month of positive growth in a row, up from +8% in October, and the highest balance since November 2007.

Growth is also forecast to pick up further in the run-up to Christmas, with business sentiment about the retail sector over the coming three months now positive for the first time since August 2007.

It found that a balance of 19% of retailers think sales volumes will improve next month in the critical pre-Christmas period compared with last the year before.

Grocers and footwear & leather retailers enjoyed strong growth this month, while sales volumes rose for a second month at durable household goods and furniture & carpets sellers.

It was tougher for clothing and hardware, china & DIY sectors, which all suffered a fall in sales.

"It's reassuring that the high street now has a second month of sales growth behind it, and it looks like December will be even better," said Andy Clarke, Chairman of the CBI Distributive Trades Panel, and Chief Operating Officer of Asda.

"Despite the more upbeat mood and pre-Christmas sales growth, consumers are still worried about job losses and a weak economy. In 2010 the high street will find that recovery is fragile and slow."

December could also benefit from a rush to buy big ticket purchases ahead of the increase in VAT back to 17.5% from 15% at the beginning of next year.

But Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, adds a note of caution.

"The concern remains that any significant pick up in spending over the final weeks of the year could very well prove temporary and that the upside for consumption will be limited for some time to come due to the serious headwinds still facing consumers," he says.

"Consumers will also be wary that further out they are very likely to face higher taxes in addition to January's VAT hike as part of the major corrective action that will be needed to rein in the terrible government finances."

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