SocGen warns of possible melt-down
19-11-2009 12:36
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Analysts at French bank Societe Generale have given clients a list of possible bolt holes in the event markets suffer a meltdown, which it suggests could happen under its worst case forecast for the world's finances.
SocGen argues that stimulus packages have just transferred private liabilities onto sovereign shoulders and have not solved any problems.
Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies, the bank says, and will only reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", which could take years.
Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario, the dollar would slide further and global equities would drop back to their March lows. Property prices would tumble again and oil fall back.
Worldwide state debt would reach $45trn, up two-and-a-half times in a decade and higher on an underlying basis than after the Second World War.
"High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt," the report said.
The bank advises SocGen advises those worried to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities to avoid being caught in the a possible deflationary spiral. Emerging markets would provide no comfort as they are linked to the health of the US economy.
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