Stock Market News
Week ahead: All eyes on Italy and Bernanke, despite earnings deluge
22-02-2013 17:39
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Over the weekend market watchers will be keeping tabs on the results of the second round run-off of the Presidential elections in Cyprus. Conservative leader Nicos Anastasiades needs to secure a sufficient number of votes so as to convince the Troika that his country can deliver the goods in terms of revamping the economy.
Early in the week - on Monday - investors will be monitoring their screens for the result of the HSBC/Markit Chinese manufacturing sector purchasing managers' survey for the month of February.
In turn, those figures will be followed later in the week by the latest US durable goods orders figures (Wednesday), the Chicago NAPM regional factory survey (Thursday) and the ISM's manufacturing survey data (Friday). All of those will provide some of the most real-time insights available into the state of the US economy. As well, on Thursday the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate on fourth quarter 2012 gross domestic product.
Yet by far the most important event in the coming days will be the result of the Italian elections, which will be made known on Wednesday, February 25th. The key thing to watch for here, according to some analysts, is whether or not Bersani's centre-left PD party will win a sufficient majority in the Senate (not just the lower chamber) to see through the necessary macroeconomic reforms. However, for some observers it is also important that Mario Monti's 'Civic Choice' have sufficient weight so that he can add his weight to the push for reforms. In Credit Suisse's words, "there are several alternative and sub-scenarios that cannot be dismissed. These imply that the Italian elections remain a significant risk event."
Almost as important as the above (unless he surprises markets) will be US Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke's testimony before the US Senate's banking committee, on Tuesday. That is expected to be the perfect venue for him to dispel any possible misconceptions, or not, about his current policy bias.
Lastly, and on Friday, March 1st, the US government will reach the dreaded 'sequester' deadline.
Pearson is expected to report a subdued set of full year results, according to analysts Charles Stanley, held back by the disposal of its 50% stake in FTSE International (the financial indices business) and the impact of changes to the UK government´s apprenticeship scheme. The results will be presided over by John Fallon, who succeeded long-standing Chief Executive (CEO) Marjorie Scardino on January 1st 2013. Fallon was previously CEO of Pearson´s International Education division. The broker´s expectation is that Group strategy will remain broadly consistent, despite the change in leadership. Charles Stanley expects the company to unveil full-year revenues of £6.096m, profit before tax (PBT) of £875m and a dividend per share of 43.5p.
On the following day, Tuesday, GKN is due to announce its interim 2012 results. There were no real surprises in the Group´s third quarter IMS, with challenging conditions in the European automotive and industrial markets being offset by strong automotive demand in the US and growth in civil aerospace, Charles Stanley says. These analysts also highlight existing expectations for a continued strong US automobile market, a potential near bottoming of the European automobile market and the company´s increasing exposure to civil aerospace. Profit before taxes is expected to come in at £220, accompanied by a dividend per share of 4.6p.
Bovis Homes, which will publish its final results on February 25th, is likely to report a strong set of full-year results write analysts at Panmure Gordon: "and we believe that the group will report a stable UK housing market," they add. However, they are also of the opinion that this is priced into the current valuation. It is for that reason, and the fact that the company is trading on a December 2013 price-to net asset value ratio (PNAV) of 1.13 times that it currently has a hold rating on the firm´s shares.
Monday February 25
INTERIMS
Avingtrans, Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI), Thorntons
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Puma High Income VCT , Puma Vct 8, Puma Vct VII
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Italian general and regional elections, voting ends at 14:00 GMT
HSBC China manufacturing PMI (01:45)
FINALS
Bovis Homes Group, Dialight, Domino's Pizza Group, Hiscox Ltd., Microgen, Pearson, Persimmon, Senior, Staffline Group, XP Power Ltd. (DI)
EGMS
Signet Global Fixed Income Strategies Ltd.
AGMS
ASOS, Treatt, Vatukoula Gold Mines
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Associated British Foods
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Compass Group, United Drug
Tuesday February 26
INTERIMS
Asian Citrus Holding, Craneware, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, DotDigital Group, Redrow, Robert Walters, Wilmington Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
IG Group Holdings
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canadian General Investments Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
US Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke speaks before US Senate (15:00)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
House Price Index (US) (15:00)
New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
GMS
Sirius Petroleum
FINALS
CRH, Devro, GKN, Goals Soccer Centres, Provident Financial
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Rensburg AIM VCT
AGMS
Andor Technology, Bankers Inv Trust, The Commercial Bank of Qatar (Q.S.C) GDR (Reg S), XCAP Securities
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Mail.ru Group Ltd GDR (Reg S), Whitbread
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Distributive Trends Surveys (11:00)
Speech from BoE´s Paul Fisher at University of Bristol Alumni, London (18:30).
Speech from Mervyn King to Japanese Bankers Association, Tokyo (06:00 GMT). No text to be released.
Wednesday February 27
INTERIMS
Barratt Developments, Clinigen Group
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Carclo, Casdon plc, Diageo, Downing Absolute Income VCT 2, Downing Distribution VCT 1, Downing Income VCT 3, Downing Income VCT 3 E Shs, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Standard Life Equity Income Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Merchants Trust
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canaccord Financial Inc., Energy XXI (Bermuda) (Di)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
GMS
Surface Transforms
FINALS
Carillion, Centrica, Henderson Group, Interserve, Intu Properties, ITV, Molins, New Britain Palm Oil Ltd. (DI), Oxford Biomedica, Petrofac Ltd., Promethean World, SEGRO, Synectics, Weir Group
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Beazley
EGMS
Open Joint Stock Company Nomos Bank GDR (REG S)
AGMS
Gooch & Housego, Image Scan Holdings, LXB Retail Properties, Manroy
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (quarterly national accounts) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
Charlie Bean´s IEA State of the Economy Conference 2013, London (09:20).
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Baronsmead VCT 3, Baronsmead VCT 5, easyJet, Hazel Renewable Energy VCT 1, Hazel Renewable Energy VCT 2, LPA Group, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Capital Shares, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Silverdell, Zytronic
Thursday February 28
INTERIMS
Gleeson (M J) Group, Hargreaves Services, Hays, Ricardo
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'D' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 E Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 F Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'D' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 E Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 F Shares, NB Private Equity Partners Ltd.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (GER) (07:00)
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (13:45)
Chicago PMI (US) (13:45)
Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (EU) (10:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
International Reserves (EU) (11:00)
PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)
PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
Q4
Bridge Energy Asa, Frontline Ltd., Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, OJSC Megafon GDR (Reg S), Wentworth Resources Ltd (CDI)
GMS
GMA Resources
FINALS
Bridge Energy Asa, British American Tobacco, Capita, Capital & Counties Properties , Derwent London, Frontline Ltd., Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, Howden Joinery Group, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI), LSL Property Services, OJSC Megafon GDR (Reg S), Primary Health Properties, Reed Elsevier, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, RPS Group, Spirent Communications, St James's Place, Wentworth Resources Ltd (CDI), Xchanging
ANNUAL REPORT
Bank Millennium SA, Coca-Cola HBC S.A.
EGMS
Better Capital Pcc Ltd (2009)
AGMS
2 ergo Group, Alternative Investment Strategies Ltd. Sterling Hedged Shares, Datong, Driver Group, IDOX, Sinclair (William) Holdings, Terrace Hill Group, Zytronic
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Kazakhmys, Safestore Holdings
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GFK Consumer Confidence (00:01)
PMI Retail (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Andor Technology
Friday March 01
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Latchways, Mattioli Woods
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
U. of Michigan Confidence (US) (15:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Q2
London Mining
GMS
Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon, Victoria Oil & Gas
FINALS
BBA Aviation, Berendsen, Fiberweb, Hammerson, Laird, Lloyds Banking Group, Old Mutual, Rentokil Initial, Rightmove, Taylor Wimpey, William Hill, WPP
EGMS
Investors In Global Real Estate Ltd
AGMS
CQS Diversified Fund Ltd Ord NPV £, Sage Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
M4 Sterling Lending (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Gooch & Housego, Noble Investments (UK)
AB
Early in the week - on Monday - investors will be monitoring their screens for the result of the HSBC/Markit Chinese manufacturing sector purchasing managers' survey for the month of February.
In turn, those figures will be followed later in the week by the latest US durable goods orders figures (Wednesday), the Chicago NAPM regional factory survey (Thursday) and the ISM's manufacturing survey data (Friday). All of those will provide some of the most real-time insights available into the state of the US economy. As well, on Thursday the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate on fourth quarter 2012 gross domestic product.
Yet by far the most important event in the coming days will be the result of the Italian elections, which will be made known on Wednesday, February 25th. The key thing to watch for here, according to some analysts, is whether or not Bersani's centre-left PD party will win a sufficient majority in the Senate (not just the lower chamber) to see through the necessary macroeconomic reforms. However, for some observers it is also important that Mario Monti's 'Civic Choice' have sufficient weight so that he can add his weight to the push for reforms. In Credit Suisse's words, "there are several alternative and sub-scenarios that cannot be dismissed. These imply that the Italian elections remain a significant risk event."
Almost as important as the above (unless he surprises markets) will be US Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke's testimony before the US Senate's banking committee, on Tuesday. That is expected to be the perfect venue for him to dispel any possible misconceptions, or not, about his current policy bias.
Lastly, and on Friday, March 1st, the US government will reach the dreaded 'sequester' deadline.
Pearson is expected to report a subdued set of full year results, according to analysts Charles Stanley, held back by the disposal of its 50% stake in FTSE International (the financial indices business) and the impact of changes to the UK government´s apprenticeship scheme. The results will be presided over by John Fallon, who succeeded long-standing Chief Executive (CEO) Marjorie Scardino on January 1st 2013. Fallon was previously CEO of Pearson´s International Education division. The broker´s expectation is that Group strategy will remain broadly consistent, despite the change in leadership. Charles Stanley expects the company to unveil full-year revenues of £6.096m, profit before tax (PBT) of £875m and a dividend per share of 43.5p.
On the following day, Tuesday, GKN is due to announce its interim 2012 results. There were no real surprises in the Group´s third quarter IMS, with challenging conditions in the European automotive and industrial markets being offset by strong automotive demand in the US and growth in civil aerospace, Charles Stanley says. These analysts also highlight existing expectations for a continued strong US automobile market, a potential near bottoming of the European automobile market and the company´s increasing exposure to civil aerospace. Profit before taxes is expected to come in at £220, accompanied by a dividend per share of 4.6p.
Bovis Homes, which will publish its final results on February 25th, is likely to report a strong set of full-year results write analysts at Panmure Gordon: "and we believe that the group will report a stable UK housing market," they add. However, they are also of the opinion that this is priced into the current valuation. It is for that reason, and the fact that the company is trading on a December 2013 price-to net asset value ratio (PNAV) of 1.13 times that it currently has a hold rating on the firm´s shares.
Monday February 25
INTERIMS
Avingtrans, Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI), Thorntons
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Puma High Income VCT , Puma Vct 8, Puma Vct VII
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Italian general and regional elections, voting ends at 14:00 GMT
HSBC China manufacturing PMI (01:45)
FINALS
Bovis Homes Group, Dialight, Domino's Pizza Group, Hiscox Ltd., Microgen, Pearson, Persimmon, Senior, Staffline Group, XP Power Ltd. (DI)
EGMS
Signet Global Fixed Income Strategies Ltd.
AGMS
ASOS, Treatt, Vatukoula Gold Mines
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Associated British Foods
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Compass Group, United Drug
Tuesday February 26
INTERIMS
Asian Citrus Holding, Craneware, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, DotDigital Group, Redrow, Robert Walters, Wilmington Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
IG Group Holdings
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canadian General Investments Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
US Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke speaks before US Senate (15:00)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
House Price Index (US) (15:00)
New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
GMS
Sirius Petroleum
FINALS
CRH, Devro, GKN, Goals Soccer Centres, Provident Financial
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Rensburg AIM VCT
AGMS
Andor Technology, Bankers Inv Trust, The Commercial Bank of Qatar (Q.S.C) GDR (Reg S), XCAP Securities
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Mail.ru Group Ltd GDR (Reg S), Whitbread
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Distributive Trends Surveys (11:00)
Speech from BoE´s Paul Fisher at University of Bristol Alumni, London (18:30).
Speech from Mervyn King to Japanese Bankers Association, Tokyo (06:00 GMT). No text to be released.
Wednesday February 27
INTERIMS
Barratt Developments, Clinigen Group
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Carclo, Casdon plc, Diageo, Downing Absolute Income VCT 2, Downing Distribution VCT 1, Downing Income VCT 3, Downing Income VCT 3 E Shs, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Standard Life Equity Income Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Merchants Trust
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canaccord Financial Inc., Energy XXI (Bermuda) (Di)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
GMS
Surface Transforms
FINALS
Carillion, Centrica, Henderson Group, Interserve, Intu Properties, ITV, Molins, New Britain Palm Oil Ltd. (DI), Oxford Biomedica, Petrofac Ltd., Promethean World, SEGRO, Synectics, Weir Group
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Beazley
EGMS
Open Joint Stock Company Nomos Bank GDR (REG S)
AGMS
Gooch & Housego, Image Scan Holdings, LXB Retail Properties, Manroy
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (quarterly national accounts) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
Charlie Bean´s IEA State of the Economy Conference 2013, London (09:20).
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Baronsmead VCT 3, Baronsmead VCT 5, easyJet, Hazel Renewable Energy VCT 1, Hazel Renewable Energy VCT 2, LPA Group, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Capital Shares, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Silverdell, Zytronic
Thursday February 28
INTERIMS
Gleeson (M J) Group, Hargreaves Services, Hays, Ricardo
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'D' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 E Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 F Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'D' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 E Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 F Shares, NB Private Equity Partners Ltd.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (GER) (07:00)
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (13:45)
Chicago PMI (US) (13:45)
Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (EU) (10:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
International Reserves (EU) (11:00)
PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)
PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
Q4
Bridge Energy Asa, Frontline Ltd., Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, OJSC Megafon GDR (Reg S), Wentworth Resources Ltd (CDI)
GMS
GMA Resources
FINALS
Bridge Energy Asa, British American Tobacco, Capita, Capital & Counties Properties , Derwent London, Frontline Ltd., Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, Howden Joinery Group, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI), LSL Property Services, OJSC Megafon GDR (Reg S), Primary Health Properties, Reed Elsevier, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, RPS Group, Spirent Communications, St James's Place, Wentworth Resources Ltd (CDI), Xchanging
ANNUAL REPORT
Bank Millennium SA, Coca-Cola HBC S.A.
EGMS
Better Capital Pcc Ltd (2009)
AGMS
2 ergo Group, Alternative Investment Strategies Ltd. Sterling Hedged Shares, Datong, Driver Group, IDOX, Sinclair (William) Holdings, Terrace Hill Group, Zytronic
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Kazakhmys, Safestore Holdings
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GFK Consumer Confidence (00:01)
PMI Retail (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Andor Technology
Friday March 01
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Latchways, Mattioli Woods
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
U. of Michigan Confidence (US) (15:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Q2
London Mining
GMS
Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon, Victoria Oil & Gas
FINALS
BBA Aviation, Berendsen, Fiberweb, Hammerson, Laird, Lloyds Banking Group, Old Mutual, Rentokil Initial, Rightmove, Taylor Wimpey, William Hill, WPP
EGMS
Investors In Global Real Estate Ltd
AGMS
CQS Diversified Fund Ltd Ord NPV £, Sage Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
M4 Sterling Lending (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Gooch & Housego, Noble Investments (UK)
AB
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