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Week Ahead: BP, Xstrata and quantitative easing
03-02-2012 14:08
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With Royal Dutch Shell's results out of the way, attention turns to its perennial rival, BP, which issues a fourth quarter update on Tuesday.
Broker Charles Stanley thinks fourth quarter net income will be $4.8bn, down from $5.2bn the year before. The controversial oil leviathan outlined a 10-point plan at the time of its third quarter (Q3) results, and Charles Stanley will be looking for "more transparency and detail on segmental results and more financial details with the Q4 results."
BP is still toiling in the shadow of the Gulf of Mexico oil well disaster, and recently received a setback in a Louisiana court in its efforts to get Transocean to stump up what BP says is the full share of the oil rig leasing firm's tab for the claims arising from the pollution caused by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig.
On the positive side, fears that the British company would have to quit the Gulf of Mexico art the behest of the US authorities have proved unfounded.
"The Gulf of Mexico remains an important asset for BP and although the decline of oil & gas volumes may have stabilised, it may be 2013 before BP returns to historic levels of output in the Gulf. We do not anticipate any change to the quarterly dividend though BP may feel more confident about its financial position after reducing debt and receiving some contributions to the oil spill costs from partners such as Mitsui, Anadarko and Cameron," Charles Stanley analyst Tony Shepard said.
Anglo-Swiss mining giant Xstrata has been in the spotlight recently after it emerged that it is in talks with its major shareholder, Anglo-Swiss commodities trader Glencore, about a merger of equals. The company announces full year results on Tuesday, and Credit Suisse is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $11.3bn and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.87, in line with the market consensus. It does, however, see some upside potential following solid production numbers announced on the last day of January.
"We expect the market to focus closely on any commentary around capex [capital expenditure] inflation and project approvals. Las Bambas is the major project where capex is under review; however, we do not expect an update until later this year. Any commentary suggesting a more selective to approach to project growth and capex would be well received by the market in our view," Credit Suisse said.
On Thursday, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce whether there are to be any changes to the Bank's key lending rate (market says: no) but the pundits are less certain about whch way the committee will jump on its asset purchase (quantitative easing) programme.
MPC member Adam Posen nailed his colours to the mast in an interview recently, saying he was leaning towards voting for more quantitative easing (i.e. asset purchases) if the growth outlook for the UK economy remains unchanged, although he did acknowledge that he was "slightly more optimistic" about the prospects for the UK economy than he was a few months ago.
Monday February 06
INTERIMS
Allocate Software
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BT Group, Mitie Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Construction (GER) (08:55)
Q4
Randgold Resources Ltd.
GMS
Hot Tuna International
FINALS
Randgold Resources Ltd., RM
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
New Car Registrations (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Impax Asset Management Group, Scottish Inv Trust, Standard Life European Private Equity Trust
Tuesday February 07
INTERIMS
Sabien Technology Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Johnson Matthey, Workspace Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)
Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)
Q4
BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Torchmark Corp., Wolfson Microelectronics
FINALS
Beazley, BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Low & Bonar, St. Modwen Properties, Torchmark Corp., Wolfson Microelectronics, Xstrata
ANNUAL REPORT
Proventec
IMSS
888 Holdings
AGMS
Pressure Technologies, TUI Travel, United Drug, Victrex
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bellway
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Sales Monitor (00:01)
Q1
TUI Travel
Wednesday February 08
INTERIMS
BHP Billiton, Dunelm Group, Stagecoach Theatre Arts
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ashtead Group, Halma
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
City of London Investment Group, Cohort, Core VCT 'B' Shares, CPL Resources, Foresight 3 VCT, Foresight 4 VCT, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'D' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'D' Shares, Ingenious Live VCT 1, Ingenious Live VCT 2, Mattioli Woods, Murgitroyd Group, Stagecoach Group
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
IBM Corp., JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd, Polar Capital Global Healthcare Growth & Income Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Current Account (GER) (07:00)
Factory Orders (GER) (11:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Retail Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Q4
Smurfit Kappa Group, Virgin Media Inc.
GMS
Environ Group (Investments) , Sunkar Resources
FINALS
International Power, New Europe Property Investments, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Smurfit Kappa Group, Virgin Media Inc.
IMSS
Daily Mail and General Trust, Grainger, Supergroup, Thomas Cook Group
EGMS
Thames River Multi Hedge PCC Ltd. Realisation Shares
AGMS
Daily Mail and General Trust, Future, Grainger, Thomas Cook Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Edinburgh Worldwide Inv Trust
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Avon Rubber, Henderson Opportunities Trust, Manroy, Sage Group, Victrex, Zytronic
Thursday February 09
INTERIMS
Aquarius Platinum Ltd., Diageo, Hargreaves Lansdown, Rank Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)
Q3
British Land Co
Q4
BG Group, Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A. GDR(Reg S), Shire Plc
FINALS
BG Group, Catlin Group Ltd., Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A. GDR(Reg S), Rio Tinto, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Shire Plc
IMSS
Enterprise Inns, Metric Property Investments , Vodafone Group, Volex
AGMS
Enterprise Inns, Greencore Group, Income & Growth VCT , Paragon Group Of Companies
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (09:30)
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)
UK Trade (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Cardiff Property, Dunedin Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Euromoney Institutional Investor
Friday February 10
INTERIMS
Eurocommercial Properties NV
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
ICAP, Umeco
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)
Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00)
U. of Michigan Confidence (Prelim) (US) (15:00)
FINALS
Barclays, Proventec, Zenergy Power
IMSS
Cable & Wireless Communications, Flybe Group, Shaftesbury
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Juridica Investments Ltd.
AGMS
GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd., Shaftesbury
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Producer Price Indices (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Britvic, Daily Mail and General Trust, Daily Mail and General Trust 'Ord' Shares, Grainger, JPMorgan Asian Inv Trust, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd Red C shs $, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd Red C shs £, Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies Trust
Broker Charles Stanley thinks fourth quarter net income will be $4.8bn, down from $5.2bn the year before. The controversial oil leviathan outlined a 10-point plan at the time of its third quarter (Q3) results, and Charles Stanley will be looking for "more transparency and detail on segmental results and more financial details with the Q4 results."
BP is still toiling in the shadow of the Gulf of Mexico oil well disaster, and recently received a setback in a Louisiana court in its efforts to get Transocean to stump up what BP says is the full share of the oil rig leasing firm's tab for the claims arising from the pollution caused by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig.
On the positive side, fears that the British company would have to quit the Gulf of Mexico art the behest of the US authorities have proved unfounded.
"The Gulf of Mexico remains an important asset for BP and although the decline of oil & gas volumes may have stabilised, it may be 2013 before BP returns to historic levels of output in the Gulf. We do not anticipate any change to the quarterly dividend though BP may feel more confident about its financial position after reducing debt and receiving some contributions to the oil spill costs from partners such as Mitsui, Anadarko and Cameron," Charles Stanley analyst Tony Shepard said.
Anglo-Swiss mining giant Xstrata has been in the spotlight recently after it emerged that it is in talks with its major shareholder, Anglo-Swiss commodities trader Glencore, about a merger of equals. The company announces full year results on Tuesday, and Credit Suisse is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $11.3bn and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.87, in line with the market consensus. It does, however, see some upside potential following solid production numbers announced on the last day of January.
"We expect the market to focus closely on any commentary around capex [capital expenditure] inflation and project approvals. Las Bambas is the major project where capex is under review; however, we do not expect an update until later this year. Any commentary suggesting a more selective to approach to project growth and capex would be well received by the market in our view," Credit Suisse said.
On Thursday, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce whether there are to be any changes to the Bank's key lending rate (market says: no) but the pundits are less certain about whch way the committee will jump on its asset purchase (quantitative easing) programme.
MPC member Adam Posen nailed his colours to the mast in an interview recently, saying he was leaning towards voting for more quantitative easing (i.e. asset purchases) if the growth outlook for the UK economy remains unchanged, although he did acknowledge that he was "slightly more optimistic" about the prospects for the UK economy than he was a few months ago.
Monday February 06
INTERIMS
Allocate Software
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BT Group, Mitie Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Construction (GER) (08:55)
Q4
Randgold Resources Ltd.
GMS
Hot Tuna International
FINALS
Randgold Resources Ltd., RM
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
New Car Registrations (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Impax Asset Management Group, Scottish Inv Trust, Standard Life European Private Equity Trust
Tuesday February 07
INTERIMS
Sabien Technology Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Johnson Matthey, Workspace Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)
Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)
Q4
BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Torchmark Corp., Wolfson Microelectronics
FINALS
Beazley, BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Low & Bonar, St. Modwen Properties, Torchmark Corp., Wolfson Microelectronics, Xstrata
ANNUAL REPORT
Proventec
IMSS
888 Holdings
AGMS
Pressure Technologies, TUI Travel, United Drug, Victrex
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bellway
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Sales Monitor (00:01)
Q1
TUI Travel
Wednesday February 08
INTERIMS
BHP Billiton, Dunelm Group, Stagecoach Theatre Arts
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ashtead Group, Halma
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
City of London Investment Group, Cohort, Core VCT 'B' Shares, CPL Resources, Foresight 3 VCT, Foresight 4 VCT, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 1 'D' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'C' Shares, Ingenious Entertainment VCT 2 'D' Shares, Ingenious Live VCT 1, Ingenious Live VCT 2, Mattioli Woods, Murgitroyd Group, Stagecoach Group
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
IBM Corp., JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd, Polar Capital Global Healthcare Growth & Income Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Current Account (GER) (07:00)
Factory Orders (GER) (11:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Retail Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Q4
Smurfit Kappa Group, Virgin Media Inc.
GMS
Environ Group (Investments) , Sunkar Resources
FINALS
International Power, New Europe Property Investments, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Smurfit Kappa Group, Virgin Media Inc.
IMSS
Daily Mail and General Trust, Grainger, Supergroup, Thomas Cook Group
EGMS
Thames River Multi Hedge PCC Ltd. Realisation Shares
AGMS
Daily Mail and General Trust, Future, Grainger, Thomas Cook Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Edinburgh Worldwide Inv Trust
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Avon Rubber, Henderson Opportunities Trust, Manroy, Sage Group, Victrex, Zytronic
Thursday February 09
INTERIMS
Aquarius Platinum Ltd., Diageo, Hargreaves Lansdown, Rank Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)
Q3
British Land Co
Q4
BG Group, Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A. GDR(Reg S), Shire Plc
FINALS
BG Group, Catlin Group Ltd., Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A. GDR(Reg S), Rio Tinto, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Shire Plc
IMSS
Enterprise Inns, Metric Property Investments , Vodafone Group, Volex
AGMS
Enterprise Inns, Greencore Group, Income & Growth VCT , Paragon Group Of Companies
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (09:30)
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)
UK Trade (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Cardiff Property, Dunedin Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Euromoney Institutional Investor
Friday February 10
INTERIMS
Eurocommercial Properties NV
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
ICAP, Umeco
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)
Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00)
U. of Michigan Confidence (Prelim) (US) (15:00)
FINALS
Barclays, Proventec, Zenergy Power
IMSS
Cable & Wireless Communications, Flybe Group, Shaftesbury
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Juridica Investments Ltd.
AGMS
GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd., Shaftesbury
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Producer Price Indices (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Britvic, Daily Mail and General Trust, Daily Mail and General Trust 'Ord' Shares, Grainger, JPMorgan Asian Inv Trust, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd Red C shs $, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd Red C shs £, Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies Trust
| Related share prices |
|---|
| BP (BP.) share price |
| Xstrata (XTA) share price |
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