Members of The Times' Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) joined the markets yesterday in betting against Mark Carney's pet policy to keep interest rates at a record low for the foreseeable future. Carney, the new Governor of the Bank of England, announced in August that a change in the official interest rate, 0.5 per cent, would not be considered until the unemployment rate had fallen to 7 per cent. The Bank has not pencilled this in until 2016, and even then there is no guarantee of an increase, but the markets have been expecting a rate rise much earlier. They are still pricing in an increase in early 2015 despite Mr Carney stating in his maiden speech in Nottingham that it was Threadneedle Street, and not the markets, that set interest rates.
Janet Yellen will become the first woman to hold the most powerful job in the world economy after administration officials said that President Barack Obama would nominate her as chair of the US Federal Reserve. Mr Obama will formally nominate Ms Yellen at a ceremony at the White House on Wednesday. Current Chairman Ben Bernanke will also attend. The choice of Yellen - an architect of the Fed's aggressive monetary stimulus in recent years as the present vice-chair - will redouble its commitment to those policies and may lengthen the period for which US interest rates stay at zero, the Financial Times writes.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its growth forecast for the British economy on Tuesday amid what it called "welcome signs" of a pick-up in activity following the global crash. The IMF last revised its forecast for the British economy in July, forecasting growth of 0.9% for the year and 1.5% in 2014. That itself was an upward revision from 0.6% in April and was almost immediately beaten in August when official estimates showed the economy grew by 1.1% in the first six months of the year. But in yesterday´s World Economic Outlook the IMF predicted the British economy would grow by 1.4% this year and another 1.9% next year, The Daily Mail explains.
The International Monetary Fund is urging George Osborne to boost spending on Britain's infrastructure despite revising upwards its forecast for UK growth by more than for any other developed country. In a generally downbeat assessment of the state of the global economy, the Washington-based fund said it now expected the pace of expansion to be significantly higher than three months ago. Nevertheless, it triggered a fresh dispute between Osborne and his Labour shadow Ed Balls over whether the government's austerity programme had helped or hindered recovery from Britain's deepest recession of the postwar era, The Guardian reports.
A revamped $100 bill will enter circulation for the first time on Tuesday with additional design features that will make it more difficult to forge. The image of Benjamin Franklin, the scientist who was one of America's founding fathers, remains on the note, but it has been modified to make it "easier for the public to authenticate but more difficult for counterfeiters to replicate", the Federal Reserve board said. The new bill includes a blue 3D security ribbon and ink which changes from copper to green when the note is tilted. Both features are particularly difficult to fake, according to the Fed, according to The Guardian.
A shale gas boom in the UK would create more than 100,000 jobs but the industry will take 10 years to get going, according to new research. Poyry Management Consulting said that the shale gas industry would eventually employ between 40,000 and 60,000 people and a "much larger" number of indirect jobs for workers in the supply chain and service sector. The figures, based on research by Poyry, is the most bullish estimate yet. It eclipses a report in summer from the Institute of Directors, which was financed by Cuadrilla, the shale gas producer, which estimated that the industry would create up to 74,000 direct and indirect jobs, The Times notes.