The UK's claimant count dropped by 12,500 in January, reaching a level of 1.5409m, according to the latest data available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The consensus estimate had been for a fall of 7,000.

For the three months to December the unemployment rate retreated to 7.8%, after a reading of 7.9% for the previous three months (Consensus: 7.7%), as the number of individuals without a job slid by 14,000 to 2.501m.

The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64, nevertheless, was 71.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from July to September 2012. In absolute terms the number of employed increased by 154,000 to 29.73m.

The size of the household population increased by 92,000 to 50.686m.

The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for October to December 2012 was 22.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from July to September 2012. There were 8.98 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 94,000 from July to September 2012.

Between October to December 2011 and October to December 2012, total pay (including bonuses) rose by 1.4%, as expected, and regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 1.3%. The latter was one tenth of a percentage point lower than foreseen.

There were 487,000 job vacancies for November 2012 to January 2013, up 1,000 from August to October 2012 and up 24,000 on a year earlier.

Interestingly, while the number of people in part-time employment fell by 43,000 full-time workers rose by 200,000, which marks a break from the recent typical pattern.

This was Barclays Research's take on the numbers: "Today's data offer a mixed and somewhat puzzling picture with employment and claimant count data on solid ground, while the ILO measure deteriorated. Although the claimant measure has in the past given a good indication of movements in ILO unemployment data, we think that at this juncture there is little momentum for further improvements in the ILO unemployment number.

"In fact given the ILO measure has been more optimistic than the claimant count for most of 2012, we think the recent diverging movements could reflect a correction from both sources that is bringing the data closer to the underlying conditions of the labour market. We expect the unemployment rate to fluctuate around the 7.8-8.0% mark this year."

AB

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