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Tuesday preview: Train companies, Wolfson, IMPs
31-10-2011 15:20
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You wait ages for a bus and train company trading update, and then two come along at once. Both Stagecoach and National Express are set to update the market on Tuesday, and broker Peel Hunt has been running the rule over both.
Turning to Stagecoach first, and it's second quarter trading update, Peel Hunt says: "We would expect LFL [like-for-like] revenue in UK Bus to have shed a fraction of the 2% LFL growth of Q1 [first quarter], while UK Rail is likely to have sustained its 8% growth, similar to that of Go-Ahead last week. North America should still be showing growth well into double digits (Q1: +12.7% driven by Megabus), while Virgin Rail should not do much worse than its Q1 11% growth."
As for National Express's interim management statement, Peel Hunt thinks the market may be nervous about the company's Spanish operations, given the fragile state of the country's economy, but thinks that the trends seen in the first half of the trading year, where inter-city revenues were up 5% year-on-year (yoy) and urban revenues grew 11% yoy.
"In the US, the beginning of the school term should confirm the expected advantages of the 98 contract retentions and 9 conversions, and the first reports on the Petermann acquisition should be available. In UK Bus, we expect H1's [first half's] 6% revenue growth to reduce to maybe 3% by year-end, although in Coach we anticipate that the 7% H1 growth will be more resilient, given the investment into routes and services, as well as the effect of modal shift. In Rail we again expect that 8% revenue growth should be sustained," the broker said.
The explosive growth in hand-held communication devices has not led to the bonanza for Scottish chip-designer Wolfson Microelectronics that might have been expected, with the company obliged earlier this year to issue two profit warnings in one month. Royal Bank of Scotland notes that Wolfson is not alone among its peers in warning on profits, and what with the weak consumer environment, expectations for the third quarter are low.
Cigarettes maker Imperial Tobacco (IMPs) is expected to announced full-year profit before tax of £2.44bn on Tuesday, up from £2.12bn the year before. The full-year dividend is (filter) tipped to rise to 94.1p from 84.3p last year.
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Keller Group, Smith & Nephew
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Mercantile Inv Trust, Torchmark Corp.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (14:00)
Construction Spending (US) (14:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (14:00)
Q3
888 Holdings, Wolfson Microelectronics
FINALS
Imperial Tobacco Group
IMSS
National Express Group, Rathbone Brothers
AGMS
Jupiter Primadona Growth Trust, Pan African Resources, Prime Focus London
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Stagecoach Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Nationwide House Prices (07:00)
GDP (Preliminary) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
NWF Group
--
jh
Turning to Stagecoach first, and it's second quarter trading update, Peel Hunt says: "We would expect LFL [like-for-like] revenue in UK Bus to have shed a fraction of the 2% LFL growth of Q1 [first quarter], while UK Rail is likely to have sustained its 8% growth, similar to that of Go-Ahead last week. North America should still be showing growth well into double digits (Q1: +12.7% driven by Megabus), while Virgin Rail should not do much worse than its Q1 11% growth."
As for National Express's interim management statement, Peel Hunt thinks the market may be nervous about the company's Spanish operations, given the fragile state of the country's economy, but thinks that the trends seen in the first half of the trading year, where inter-city revenues were up 5% year-on-year (yoy) and urban revenues grew 11% yoy.
"In the US, the beginning of the school term should confirm the expected advantages of the 98 contract retentions and 9 conversions, and the first reports on the Petermann acquisition should be available. In UK Bus, we expect H1's [first half's] 6% revenue growth to reduce to maybe 3% by year-end, although in Coach we anticipate that the 7% H1 growth will be more resilient, given the investment into routes and services, as well as the effect of modal shift. In Rail we again expect that 8% revenue growth should be sustained," the broker said.
The explosive growth in hand-held communication devices has not led to the bonanza for Scottish chip-designer Wolfson Microelectronics that might have been expected, with the company obliged earlier this year to issue two profit warnings in one month. Royal Bank of Scotland notes that Wolfson is not alone among its peers in warning on profits, and what with the weak consumer environment, expectations for the third quarter are low.
Cigarettes maker Imperial Tobacco (IMPs) is expected to announced full-year profit before tax of £2.44bn on Tuesday, up from £2.12bn the year before. The full-year dividend is (filter) tipped to rise to 94.1p from 84.3p last year.
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Keller Group, Smith & Nephew
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Mercantile Inv Trust, Torchmark Corp.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (14:00)
Construction Spending (US) (14:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (14:00)
Q3
888 Holdings, Wolfson Microelectronics
FINALS
Imperial Tobacco Group
IMSS
National Express Group, Rathbone Brothers
AGMS
Jupiter Primadona Growth Trust, Pan African Resources, Prime Focus London
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Stagecoach Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Nationwide House Prices (07:00)
GDP (Preliminary) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
NWF Group
--
jh
| Related share prices |
|---|
| Imperial Tobacco Group (IMT) share price |
| Stagecoach Group (SGC) share price |
| National Express Group (NEX) share price |
| Wolfson Microelectronics (WLF) share price |
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