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Tuesday preview: Burberry, Johnston Press, Euro GDP, UK inflation
14-11-2011 18:23
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Fashion brand Burberry has undoubtedly been one of the success stories of the last decade, and broker Charles Stanley thinks the good run is set to continue with Tuesday's interim results.
The broker is going for sales of £830m, up from £641m at the interim stage last year, while profit before tax is tipped to rise to £159m from £129m. Credit Suisse concurs with Charles Stanley's profit estimate, as it does with Charles Stanley's projection of earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) of £160m, up from £130m last year.
Charles Stanley analyst, Sam Hart, has pencilled in earnings per share of 26.0p, up from 21.1p last year, and a generous increase in the interim dividend from 5.0p to 6.2p.
Sales data was released with the second quarter trading update on 12th October, so the focus of investor attention will be on operating margins, cash flow and any update on strategy.
In regards to the outlook, Credit Suisse said: "Burberry should be performing better than most (given the momentum of the brand) but when thinking about luxury demand in general, it's not only about the ability of luxury shoppers to spend but it's also about sentiment and this has materially worsened in the EU."
The share price of regional newspaper publisher, Johnston Press, has halved since a gloomy trading update in March, and Tuesday's interim management statement will give an indication of whether there has been any upturn in advertising, as well as a chance to hear from new chief executive officer, Ashley Highfield.
In the first half of The Scotsman publisher's financial year, advertising revenue was down 10% year-on-year (YoY), and Altium Securities notes that "the only chink of light" was "a fledgling improvement in the national display category."
The broker will be looking for news on whether this trend has been continued, and whether the company's cost savings initiative has maintained momentum. "However, we suspect that overall trading conditions may have deteriorated further," the broker gloomily predicts.
"Digital revenue progress will be another area of investor scrutiny. Disappointingly, revenues in this area fell by 5% YoY in H1 [first half] and represented only 5% of group total so it has a huge task on its hands if it is to effectively offset structural declines in print," the broker concluded.
Moving on to the economic side of things, the flash estimate of third quarter Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) is due out on Tuesday, which is sure to be keenly watched by the markets after the European Commission slashed its estimates for 2012 growth on Thursday from 1.8% to just 0.5%. Market consensus is expecting the region to grow by 0.2% over the three month period, matching 0.2% growth seen in the second quarter. However, year-on-year growth is expected to slow from 1.6% in the second quarter to 1.4%.
"Overall eurozone GDP data is ... expected to confirm that the region's aggregated economy has performed poorly and is deteriorating," according to Charles Stanley.
In the UK, the focus will be on October inflation data, due out at 9:30. The inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), is set to ease a little to 5.1% from September's 5.2% if the economists are to be believed. The core CPI rate is tipped to stay at 3.3%, or maybe nudge down to 3.2%.
As for the Retail Price Index, the annual change is expected to narrow to 5.5% from 5.6%, while the change with mortgage interest payments excluded is expected to stay at 5.7%.
INTERIMS
Advanced Computer Software Group, Aveva Group, Burberry Group, Cropper (James), Renold
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2, Sagicor Financial Corp.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Abbott Laboratories, Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)
Business Inventories (US) (13:30)
GDP (Flash Estimate) (EU) (10:00)
Gross Domestic Product (GER) (07:00)
Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (US) (13:45)
Retail Sales Inventories (US) (15:15)
ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)
ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)
Q3
JSC Acron GDR (Reg S), Telecom Egypt SAE GDS (Regs)
GMS
Mid-States
FINALS
Accumuli , easyJet, Infrastrata, Supercart
ANNUAL REPORT
Fidelity Special Values
IMSS
Afren, Aseana Properties Ltd., John Menzies, Premier Oil
EGMS
Aseana Properties Ltd.
AGMS
CAP-XX Ltd., Harbourvest Senior Loans Europe Ltd., Henderson EuroTrust, IRP Property Investments Ltd., Wilmington Group
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Micro Focus International Plc
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (09:30)
Retail Price Index (09:30)
The broker is going for sales of £830m, up from £641m at the interim stage last year, while profit before tax is tipped to rise to £159m from £129m. Credit Suisse concurs with Charles Stanley's profit estimate, as it does with Charles Stanley's projection of earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) of £160m, up from £130m last year.
Charles Stanley analyst, Sam Hart, has pencilled in earnings per share of 26.0p, up from 21.1p last year, and a generous increase in the interim dividend from 5.0p to 6.2p.
Sales data was released with the second quarter trading update on 12th October, so the focus of investor attention will be on operating margins, cash flow and any update on strategy.
In regards to the outlook, Credit Suisse said: "Burberry should be performing better than most (given the momentum of the brand) but when thinking about luxury demand in general, it's not only about the ability of luxury shoppers to spend but it's also about sentiment and this has materially worsened in the EU."
The share price of regional newspaper publisher, Johnston Press, has halved since a gloomy trading update in March, and Tuesday's interim management statement will give an indication of whether there has been any upturn in advertising, as well as a chance to hear from new chief executive officer, Ashley Highfield.
In the first half of The Scotsman publisher's financial year, advertising revenue was down 10% year-on-year (YoY), and Altium Securities notes that "the only chink of light" was "a fledgling improvement in the national display category."
The broker will be looking for news on whether this trend has been continued, and whether the company's cost savings initiative has maintained momentum. "However, we suspect that overall trading conditions may have deteriorated further," the broker gloomily predicts.
"Digital revenue progress will be another area of investor scrutiny. Disappointingly, revenues in this area fell by 5% YoY in H1 [first half] and represented only 5% of group total so it has a huge task on its hands if it is to effectively offset structural declines in print," the broker concluded.
Moving on to the economic side of things, the flash estimate of third quarter Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) is due out on Tuesday, which is sure to be keenly watched by the markets after the European Commission slashed its estimates for 2012 growth on Thursday from 1.8% to just 0.5%. Market consensus is expecting the region to grow by 0.2% over the three month period, matching 0.2% growth seen in the second quarter. However, year-on-year growth is expected to slow from 1.6% in the second quarter to 1.4%.
"Overall eurozone GDP data is ... expected to confirm that the region's aggregated economy has performed poorly and is deteriorating," according to Charles Stanley.
In the UK, the focus will be on October inflation data, due out at 9:30. The inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), is set to ease a little to 5.1% from September's 5.2% if the economists are to be believed. The core CPI rate is tipped to stay at 3.3%, or maybe nudge down to 3.2%.
As for the Retail Price Index, the annual change is expected to narrow to 5.5% from 5.6%, while the change with mortgage interest payments excluded is expected to stay at 5.7%.
INTERIMS
Advanced Computer Software Group, Aveva Group, Burberry Group, Cropper (James), Renold
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2, Sagicor Financial Corp.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Abbott Laboratories, Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)
Business Inventories (US) (13:30)
GDP (Flash Estimate) (EU) (10:00)
Gross Domestic Product (GER) (07:00)
Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (US) (13:45)
Retail Sales Inventories (US) (15:15)
ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)
ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)
Q3
JSC Acron GDR (Reg S), Telecom Egypt SAE GDS (Regs)
GMS
Mid-States
FINALS
Accumuli , easyJet, Infrastrata, Supercart
ANNUAL REPORT
Fidelity Special Values
IMSS
Afren, Aseana Properties Ltd., John Menzies, Premier Oil
EGMS
Aseana Properties Ltd.
AGMS
CAP-XX Ltd., Harbourvest Senior Loans Europe Ltd., Henderson EuroTrust, IRP Property Investments Ltd., Wilmington Group
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Micro Focus International Plc
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (09:30)
Retail Price Index (09:30)
| Related share prices |
|---|
| Johnston Press (JPR) share price |
| Burberry Group (BRBY) share price |
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