Gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom decreased at an 0.3 per cent pace in the fourth quarter of 2012 when compared with the previous three months, according to the preliminary data out from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The consensus estimate was for a fall of 0.1%. However, the range of forecasts canvassed by Bloomberg was unusually wide, and ran from +0.1% to -0.5%.

In terms of quarterly rates of change output from the production industries fell by 1.8%, that from the service sector was estimated to have been flat and construction sector output was estimated by ONS to have increased by 0.3%.

In particular, and within the first of those sectors, mining output was down by 10.2% and that from manufacturing by 1.5%. Were it not for the first of those declines then economists's expectations for GDP would have been met.

Also worth pointing out, Barclays Research estimates that the unwinding of the effect of the Olympics in the third quarter subtracted about 0.2 percentage points from fourth quarter growth.

GDP is estimated to have been flat between 2011 and 2012.

AB

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