The eminently quotable Albert Einstein once said the definition of insanity was "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results".

But then he also said "any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction".

While the latter missive in particular seems tailor made for the 140-character micro-blogging site, the former seems to fit nicely with the idea of another social media flotation.

Researchers at Greencrest Capital reckon Twitter is gearing up for such a float in 2014. They have valued Twitter at a gobsmacking $11bn, based on private trading in the company's shares.

The evidence for such a move is there, although admittedly circumstantial. Firstly there's the beefed up management team, which includes ex-Zynga employee Mike Gupta as Chief Financial Officer and Mike Davidson, who founded Newsvine and then sold it to Msnbc.com. He is now vice-president of design.

Then there's the efforts to make promoted tweets more effective by targeting people who will actually click on them, as well as its upgraded photo app to take on Facebook's Instagram.

It's these kind of things that make Max Wolff at Greencrest feel an IPO could be on the horizon, and at a value that has leapt since previous valuations. In July 2011 it was estimated to be worth (a paltry!) $8bn by comparison.

"This makes sense as growth in users and new monetisation efforts are both yielding fruit and pointing toward a good 2013 for Twitter," Wolff said.

Of course, the $11bn comes with a caveat: "Using the secondary market for shares to mark enterprise value is a very difficult and opaque process. It is a rumor rich and special share class soup," Wolff adds.

Returning to the wise words of the Father of Modern Physics, Einstein's definition of insanity seems peculiarly apt in the light of recent high profile IPOs.

Facebook.

There was no better metaphor for the social network's disastrous IPO than when Mark Zuckerberg brought the hammer down on the eagerly awaited launch of its shares.

Nothing happened. There was a problem with the Nasdaq.

Or was there? Maybe the algorithms knew better and simply refused to start the trading.

"What are you thinking?" they (may have) cried in binary.

Facebook is down around a quarter since then and might consider itself lucky. Zinga and GroupOn are both down around three quarters in value since their launch. Only Linked In is bucking the trend, currently up by about a fifth since its launch in May 2011.

In terms of simple numbers, it seems the odds are against Twitter. Will it be any different this time? This may be a moot point; investors can exhibit extraordinary short memories when a shiny new thing with a flash marketing campaign behind it appears before them. Indeed, rarely in modern times has the Emperor had to buy so many new clothes than for the rise of social media.

What we do know is Twitter executives don't seem to be in any rush. In a interview with CNBC last September, Twitter CEO Dick Costolo said he was not interested in going public yet. Co-founder Jack Dorsey has maintained the IPO enigma saying it would happen when the company was "ready for that milestone".

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