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Asia: Chinese export data leaves some economists puzzled
08-03-2013 10:23
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The majority of the Asia Pacific bourses ended Friday´s session in the blue, following the release of a sharp upwards revision to Japanese growth estimates for the last three months of 2012.
Nikkei-225: 2.64%
Hang Seng: 1.41%
Shanghai: -0.48%
BSE: 1.41%
Philipines: 1.62%
Taiwan: 0.69%
Kospi: 0.08%
The Chinese equity benchmark was a notorious exception, failing to capitalise on data showing a far more robust reading on exports from that country than was expected.
The Asian giant reported a 21.8% jump in exports, well above the 10.1% consensus estimate. In January, exports had risen 25.0%. Nevertheless, data for January or February are often distorted depending on in which month the Lunar New Year falls.
To also be had in account, economists at Nomura expressed surprise at the robustness of the figures released this morning, hinting that they may be distorted by 'capital inflows,' as corporations attempt to bypass capital controls.
In any case, the data are hard to reconcile with that from other regional heavyweights such as South Korea or Taiwan, these economists remark, and only add to the case for policy tightening "on the margin," given that monetary policy is increasingly driven by domestic data and that has not been brilliant of late.
As well, imports fell at twice the expected rate last month in China, which may denote some economic weakness.
Lasty, and acting as a backdrop, mention must made of the Yen´s fall versus the dollar past the 95 yen level. The recent weakening of the Japanese currency unit today drew comments from authorities in Beijing warning of the risk posed by competitive currency devaluations.
AB
Nikkei-225: 2.64%
Hang Seng: 1.41%
Shanghai: -0.48%
BSE: 1.41%
Philipines: 1.62%
Taiwan: 0.69%
Kospi: 0.08%
The Chinese equity benchmark was a notorious exception, failing to capitalise on data showing a far more robust reading on exports from that country than was expected.
The Asian giant reported a 21.8% jump in exports, well above the 10.1% consensus estimate. In January, exports had risen 25.0%. Nevertheless, data for January or February are often distorted depending on in which month the Lunar New Year falls.
To also be had in account, economists at Nomura expressed surprise at the robustness of the figures released this morning, hinting that they may be distorted by 'capital inflows,' as corporations attempt to bypass capital controls.
In any case, the data are hard to reconcile with that from other regional heavyweights such as South Korea or Taiwan, these economists remark, and only add to the case for policy tightening "on the margin," given that monetary policy is increasingly driven by domestic data and that has not been brilliant of late.
As well, imports fell at twice the expected rate last month in China, which may denote some economic weakness.
Lasty, and acting as a backdrop, mention must made of the Yen´s fall versus the dollar past the 95 yen level. The recent weakening of the Japanese currency unit today drew comments from authorities in Beijing warning of the risk posed by competitive currency devaluations.
AB
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