Euro Ends the Week Flat, Awaits Spain’s Capitulation
As we enter the winter it looks like we are going to be treated to another season ofWill They, Won’t They in which another Euro-zone country on the verge of defaulting on its sovereign debt attempts to wriggle out of its self-imposed straight jacket of debt. Last season it was Greece, this year the series goes West to Spain where Prime Minister (for now) Rajoy continues to hold out for a better deal from the loan sharks who expect full payment for their coupons and have the Troika of the E.C.B., the E.U. and the I.M.F. starring as the leg-breakers.
As this period drama plays itself out we will be treated to an endless array of headlines designed to toss the Euro-US Dollar exchange rate hither and thither in a vain attempt to keep up appearances of stability and nobility not unlike some BBC period drama. Where’s Julian Fellowes when you need him because frankly, I’m a little sick of this plot. Eventually either Rajoy will cave in, ask for a bailout, be given unreasonable terms for it and be thrown out of office by an electorate that rightly feels they’ve been sold into debt slavery OR he’ll resist, be summarily replaced via vaguely legal means and his replacement will do what he wouldn’t.
So, for all of the noise of the week, the Euro ended pretty much where it closed last week, $1.2957, and all the markets look to be range-bound after the announcement of QEternity, which we know will result in a deluge of money so vast it will defy our senses but somehow the central banks and their apologists will carry on stiff-upper lip and all that proclaiming the whole business to be sterilized and it won’t have any real effect on prices.
If that’s the case then why is every major asset class positive this year? More money chasing the same net numbers of goods? Nah. Don’t be so pedestrian.